Rapidly rising temperatures following the arctic blast could cause slew of problems

Areas of the country recently impacted by an arctic blast will begin to see a warm-up starting this weekend, leading to temperatures reaching at or above average in the coming days.

The warmer air is expected to start arriving on Sunday and become widespread by the early days of the upcoming workweek.

Both Chicago and New York are expected to see temperatures rise into the 40s and 50s, and Buffalo is forecast to finally climb above freezing and stay there by the final day of the weekend.

“We’re nearly flipping the script entirely at the start of the new week,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar.

Instead of more than 200 million people experiencing below-average temperatures, as during the Arctic blast, more than 200 million will benefit from the warmer air.

Sudden shift in air masses could cause problems

While the warmer air will feel enjoyable to most, it could potentially lead to problems, especially in communities that are digging out from snow drifts.

“Two days ago, I remember the 50 mph wind gusts and wind chills that were not only in the single digits but below zero. Now, Minneapolis will be in the mid-40s,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Ian Oliver.

The FOX Forecast Center warns the combination of warmer than average temperatures and rainfall during the late weekend and early week will lead to isolated areas of flooding, especially around the larger lake-effect snow drifts in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

Meteorologists in those areas are already warning about the potential flooding threat, but at this time, the impacts are not considered widespread enough to warrant the issuance of Flood Watches ahead of the melting.

There is also the question of how much staying power the warm air actually has, as forecast models show another arctic plunge starting mid- to late week.

Similar to the most recent chill, warm water temperatures are expected to rejuvenate the lake-effect snow machine, especially for communities downwind of the Great Lakes.

So, while the snow cover has a chance to melt, not all of it will likely be gone by the time heavy snowfall chances return to the forecast.

According to a recent NOAA snowfall analysis, 21.5% of the country was covered in snow, which is expected to rapidly decrease over the coming days but not approach zero.

This means some areas will likely have snow on the ground through most of the month, if not the season.

The amount of snow cover is much greater than last year, when only 15.1% of the country had snow cover, and is on par with 2022, when 24.3% of the country was covered by frozen precipitation.

The melting of ice layers will likely occur across the Midwest, increasing the dangers for those who venture onto lakes.

Already in 2024, several people have died in the northern tier of the country after venturing onto ice that was too thin.

Experts annually advise the public never to venture onto ice of unknown thickness.

At least 4 inches of ice is needed to support a human’s weight sufficiently, and at least 8 inches is recommended before attempting to drive a small-sized vehicle on it.

Ice coverage tends to peak around mid-February but varies depending on the winter’s climate patterns.