HALLOWEEN SCARE: Dems’ midterm fears worsen as election forecasters shift more races toward GOP in final weeks

Democrats across the country are facing an increasingly bleak outlook as election forecasters continue to shift more races in Republicans’ favor with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.

The shifts have taken place in a number of races once thought out of reach for Republicans. But, as voters’ concerns over inflation, the economy, violent crime and the border crisis continue to rise, Democrats are beginning to see hopes of maintaining majorities in both houses of Congress, and some governorships, slip through their fingers.

On Tuesday, Fox News’ Power Rankings made changes to five key races, all centered in the Northeastern U.S., a region that’s been trending more Democratic in recent years.

The changes included, notably, the New York gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, which shifted from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” and the race in the state’s 17th Congressional District between Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney and Republican Mike Lawler, which shifted from “lean Democratic” to a toss-up.

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The other changes included New York’s 4th Congressional District from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic,” New York’s 22nd Congressional District from toss-up to “leans Republican,” and New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.”

Overall, Fox predicts Republicans have the advantage and could win anywhere between 216 House seats as the worst case scenario, and 249 seats as the best case scenario. The party needs 218 seats for a majority.

Additionally, it rates control of the Senate as a toss-up.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics also made changes to five key House ratings in the GOP’s favor this week, including in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District between Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democrat Jamie McLeod Skinner. Republicans have been building a surprising momentum in the deep-blue state as homelessness and the drug crisis have upped concerns over quality of life.

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Like Fox News, the forecaster shifted the race in New York’s 22nd Congressional District from a toss-up to “leans Republican,” but also California’s 27th Congressional District from a toss-up to “leans Republican,” New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District from a toss-up to “leans Republican,” and New York’s 25th Congressional District from “safe Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”

The forecaster predicted that the “likeliest” outcome in November will be Republicans winning control of the House with a gain of “somewhere in the high teens or low 20s,” and rates overall control of the Senate as a toss-up.

Left: Mark Kelly in New York on February 22, 2018. Right: Blake Masters in Phoenix, Arizona on August 1, 2022.
(Dimitrios Kambouris/Brandon Bell)

Cook Political Report made the most race changes this week, which included a notable shift in the heated Arizona Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, from “leans Democratic,” to a toss-up.

Like Fox News and the University of Virginia, the forecaster shifted New York’s 17th Congressional District from “leans Democratic” to a toss-up, but also a number of other races not included in the other reports.

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It shifted California’s 49th Congressional District from “leans Democratic” to a toss-up, Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District from “leans Democratic” to a toss-up, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District from “lean’s Democratic” to a toss-up, Virginia’s 10th Congressional District from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” and Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican.”

The forecaster also predicted Republicans will win control of the House with a gain of anywhere between 12 and 25 seats, and that the Senate remains a “toss-up.”

Republican Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt speaks with Fox News Digital from his office.
(Fox News Digital/Jon Michael Raasch)

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Despite the positive outlook for Republicans, Democrats did have a few races swing in their favor this week.

According to Fox News’ Power Rankings, the Oklahoma gubernatorial race shifted from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” while Cook Political Report shifted AK-AL from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic,” IA-02 from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” KS-03 from toss-up to “leans Democratic,” and NC-01 from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”